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PRESS RELEASE
Dated : 19th June 2009
Government of India
Ministry of Earth Sciences
India Meteorological Department
Subject: Monsoon- 2009: Current status
Onset and advance of monsoon
Based on the assessment of meteorological conditions and the forecast of several Numerical Weather Predication Models, IMD in its press release on 10th June indicated no revival of monsoon for about a week. During the past week (10th-18th June), no fresh surge developed either in the Bay of Bengal or in the Arabian Sea which could lead to further advance of monsoon. Consequently, the northern limit of monsoon continue to pass through Lat. 17.0° N/ Long. 60.0° E, Lat. 17.0° N/ Long. 70.0° E, Ratanagiri, Gadag, Anantapur, Ongole, Kalingapattinam, Paradip, Balasore, Bankura and Gangtok till date.
Normally, monsoon covers most parts of the country except northwest India by 20th June. Thus, there has been a delay of about 10 days in advance of monsoon over Orissa, Maharashtra and north Andhra Pradesh, and about one week over Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and south Madhya Pradesh & south Gujarat.
Cumulative rainfall (1st-17th June)
Actual rainfall for the country as a whole is 39.5 mm against a normal of 72.5 mm with a deficiency of 45%. Out of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, rainfall was excess/ normal in 8, while it was deficient/ scanty in 28 subdivisions.
Weather Forecast for next One Week
Analysis of latest meteorological conditions and forecast of various Numerical Weather Predication Models suggest gradual strengthening of monsoon current with increase in the pressure gradient over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. Consequently, rainfall activity will increase along the west coast with northward propagation during next 2-3 days. Under these conditions, monsoon is likely to advance over some more parts of Maharashtra (including Mumbai) during next 2-3 days. There is also convection persisting over westcentral & northwest Bay of Bengal which is favourable for advance of monsoon into some more parts of Andhra Pradesh and Orissa. However, in the absence of any strong surge, monsoon is not likely to advance over central India during next one week.
Next Press release will be issued on 26th June 2009.
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Source : India Meteorological Department.